The final trading day of March and of the first quarter starts on a good note, with U.S. futures rising after a report suggested Donald Trump is willing to wind down the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The coming week will test whether investors can keep pretending this is a manageable scare rather than the start of a bigger economic turn. There is labor-market data arriving in a holiday-shortened week, beginning with JOLTS job openings. There are fresh readings on home prices, consumer confidence, and Chicago business activity. There are speeches from Fed officials such as Austan Goolsbee and Michelle Bowman, as well as reports from Nike and McCormick. Markets will parse every comma for reassurance, because it is in short supply right now.
