The U.S. and Iran are still wobbling between negotiation and confrontation, and the ceasefire is about to expire. Headlines have flipped so quickly from hints of calm to renewed threats that trading this market now feels less like investing and more like placing bets at a casino. Yet Kevin Warsh was the first name hanging over Wall Street this morning. His confirmation hearing to become the next Federal Reserve chair is shaping up as a test of something markets usually take for granted until it looks shaky: central-bank independence.

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