Monday's trading started as a classic panic over energy risk. Investors came in fearing that the conflict tied to Iran was about to turn into a full oil shock, with all the usual consequences: higher inflation, weaker growth, fewer rate cuts, and another hit to risk assets. Then the script changed. At 7 am ET, Trump announced that strikes on Iranian energy sites would be postponed for five days: suddenly prices snapped violently in the other direction. The clearest move was in oil, which fell 11% just after the announcement, showing how much of the earlier surge had been driven by fears of imminent escalation. Futures, which had been deep in the red, also reversed sharply as traders rushed to unwind the worst-case trade. As I write these line, the S&P 500 is up 2.5%.
