The missiles flew, the oil spiked, and the world's most important shipping lane edged toward peril. In most eras, that combination would have sent markets into a tailspin. Instead, American investors blinked, recalibrated - and, at least at first, barely flinched. While Europe and Asia recoiled and energy prices surged, Wall Street responded with a shrug that was either a sign of resilience or a sign of remarkable complacency. Now, though, futures are sliding sharply, a sign that the delayed reaction may be arriving with force. The question is no longer whether this conflict matters to the U.S. economy. It is how long markets can afford to assume the damage will be contained.

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