The stock market continues to be weirdly serene at the worst possible moments. Oil, by contrast, is flashing a warning that stocks still seem reluctant to read. Since the Middle East conflict escalated, equities have slipped, but not by much. In the United States, the S&P 500 is down only about 2% over the past 10 days. Europe has done worse, with the Stoxx 600 off roughly 5%, but even that is modest by the standards of a real geopolitical shock - especially when both markets were hovering near record highs. Investors, in other words, still appear to be pricing in a short war and a fairly quick return to normal.

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