The calendar says summer has begun. The first full week of July opens with stocks sitting in an unusually comfortable place. European equities have just touched fresh highs, while U.S. indexes are close to their peaks after a strong second quarter. Oil has fallen back toward levels seen before the latest Middle East shock. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed in size, with 160 vessels reported to have passed through last week. OPEC+ has added another 188,000 barrels a day to its August production targets.

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