This morning's rally is easy enough to explain: a two-week cease-fire between the United States and Iran, along with a pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, has given investors a reason to believe the worst-case scenario may be off the table, at least for now. Stock-index futures are sharply higher, oil is falling fast, Treasury yields eased and the dollar is weaker. The VIX, Wall Street's favorite fear gauge, has dropped. Airlines, cruise operators, and other travel stocks are jumping, while energy stocks are sliding. What investors are cheering is not peace, but the possibility that the world may avoid another self-inflicted economic shock.

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