The market seems ready to believe a comforting little story: maybe the worst has passed. Indices bounced back yesterday and Futures on Wall Street are in the green this morning. Yet oil is still hovering around $100 a barrel, the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively constrained, and the Middle East conflict is still widening. The global economy is still confronting the sort of shock that central bankers, investors, and regular households have learned to fear for a simple reason: it spreads.

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