After the recent government shutdown left policymakers flying blind, the first meaningful signpost - the upcoming PCE inflation report - is eagerly awaited by investors, analysts, and anyone who enjoys pretending they understand monetary policy , hoping it confirms what they already believe: that the Federal Reserve is finally ready to start cutting rates. According to CME's FedWatch Tool and LSEG, markets are now pricing in roughly an 85% to 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut as soon as next week.

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